Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.236510 2.349423 2.469835 2.608697 2.765594 2.938838 3.146709
2025-03-23 2.091434 2.248324 2.424645 2.640693 2.903109 3.218566 3.638735
2025-03-30 1.954652 2.129418 2.332005 2.589755 2.918080 3.337212 3.942538
2025-04-06 1.846895 2.030485 2.247942 2.532208 2.907463 3.409784 4.186895
2025-04-13 1.768573 1.959013 2.188666 2.495879 2.914355 3.499493 4.467881
2025-04-20 1.732444 1.935177 2.184669 2.527479 3.012357 3.728525 5.027176
2025-04-27 1.715772 1.933302 2.206764 2.593515 3.164088 4.063306 5.900817
2025-05-04 1.676528 1.899920 2.184754 2.595577 3.219908 4.252367 6.579836
2025-05-11 1.641463 1.869724 2.164503 2.597409 3.273965 4.447179 7.389432
2025-05-18 1.589707 1.815347 2.108591 2.543165 3.232142 4.457352 7.723846
2025-05-25 1.557244 1.784908 2.083570 2.532226 3.259248 4.604229 8.582120
2025-06-01 1.525838 1.754521 2.056963 2.516736 3.276452 4.734224 9.527627
2025-06-08 1.488586 1.716135 2.019074 2.484131 3.265231 4.812075 10.438759
2025-06-15 1.474290 1.708024 2.023137 2.516108 3.371208 5.178502 13.583970
2025-06-22 1.437209 1.667650 1.979564 2.470502 3.331112 5.190895 14.744419
2025-06-29 1.400359 1.626532 1.933468 2.418493 3.274689 5.152747 15.527862
2025-07-06 1.371244 1.595202 1.900361 2.385573 3.251526 5.196830 17.416147
2025-07-13 1.361818 1.590549 1.905444 2.414214 3.348780 5.590231 28.211712
2025-07-20 1.361469 1.598289 1.928707 2.473939 3.515543 6.265168 703.989065
2025-07-27 1.345445 1.583529 1.917957 2.475801 3.563732 6.595457 NaN
2025-08-03 1.330197 1.569387 1.907529 2.477455 3.611647 6.953705 NaN
2025-08-10 1.302649 1.537173 1.868882 2.428417 3.543699 6.844873 NaN
2025-08-17 1.286206 1.520375 1.853093 2.418514 3.562251 7.095585 NaN